Four ways to track a question about the future: Metaculus, Polymarket, Manifold and an AI monitoring agent
You have a question about the future. Maybe it's "Will the EU pass the AI Act amendments by Q2 2026?"...
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You have a question about the future. Maybe it's "Will the EU pass the AI Act amendments by Q2 2026?"...
Short answer: turn closed API usage buckets into a conservative forecast, add explicit headroom for...
FutureSearch lists the AI forecasting bot laertes first in Metaculus's Summer FutureEval tournament, but the bot's model, tools, cutoff and leakage controls remain undisclosed.
The authors of the AI 2027 scenario compared every quantitative prediction that has resolved against reality and found the world running at roughly three-quarters of their projected pace, a result one of them said surprised him in a bad way.
Quick read · 6 min read The El Niño forecast trend highlights growing enterprise demand for climate...
Introduction To Hurricane Intensity Forecasting Artificial intelligence has made...
Dan Luu published an audit on September 1, 2026 of roughly 28 dated predictions by the AI skeptic Ed Zitron going back to February 2024, and marked every single one wrong -- including repeated calls that generative AI had permanently peaked, that Ope
60% of seasonal retailers miss profit targets. A data-driven plan can turn peak demand into predictable cash flow and cut forecasting error by up to 25%. The ap
In commodity trading, a single mispriced bean can trigger multi-million losses. Real-time machine learning models give traders an edge by forecasting Arabica an
Introduction To Storm Strengthening Tropical cyclones, commonly known as hurricanes or...
WeatherNext 3 generates global forecasts every hour using low-latency satellite observations and station data, while retaining analysis inputs and important upper-air limitations.
We compare three models on a rigorous election prediction benchmark. Nemotron 3 Ultra leads with 89.1, GLM 5.2 scores 78, and HY3 trails at 76.5. We break down the per-axis scores to show why the winner excels and what it means for your forecasting workflow.