
Polymarket's 78% Iran Peace Odds Misprice the Hormuz Tail
A French container ship took a cruise missile in Hormuz May 5. The same day, Polymarket's US-Iran peace odds spiked +12% to 78%. The trade is the misprice.
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A French container ship took a cruise missile in Hormuz May 5. The same day, Polymarket's US-Iran peace odds spiked +12% to 78%. The trade is the misprice.
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Macron urges US-Iran talks to shift Middle East power as Trump orders military guidance in Hormuz, raising stakes for regional stability.

UKMTO’s advisory to reroute ships through Oman waters signals rising risks in Hormuz and Oman’s growing role as a safer maritime passage.

A halt in Hormuz shipping fuels Trump’s unexpected Iran peace proposal, threatening to reshape Middle East geopolitics and oil flows.