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Trump invokes a rarely used 1930s trade law to impose 50% tariffs on nearly $20 billion in Canadian goods, effective August 19, with ripple effects reaching crypto markets.
President Trump asserts oil, gas, eggs, and drug prices are falling fast, but underlying data tells a more complicated story, with crude oil all-time-high odds at 6.8%.
Russia has warned that escalating Middle East tensions could trigger a record energy crisis, with prediction markets placing a 15% probability on crude oil hitting a new all-time high by year-end.
US oil exports have pulled back after hitting a record high in April 2026, with prediction markets placing a 7.6% probability on crude reaching a new all-time high by September 30.
Iran exported 70 million barrels of oil to China during a brief U.S. blockade lift, while prediction markets give only 9.5% odds of Strait of Hormuz normalization by August 31.
Iran threatens Gulf airports and ports as prediction markets place only a 9.5% chance of Strait of Hormuz traffic normalizing by August 31.
Deutsche Bank and MIGA have launched a €1 billion trade finance platform targeting frontier and emerging markets starved of liquidity by tightening risk appetites.
A US-Iran ceasefire brings relief to crude oil markets, but Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries continue to keep refined fuel prices stubbornly high.
A fresh clash between the US and Iran over the Strait of Hormuz has sent oil prices jumping, raising fears of sustained energy market volatility and global economic disruption.
Missile alerts triggered across the UAE by a trajectory toward Oman underscore how the Iran-US conflict is destabilizing even neutral Gulf states and complicating regional diplomacy.
Iran claims to have destroyed US carrier support centers at Oman's Port of Duqm — an unverified assertion with sweeping implications for regional stability and financial markets.
Qatar has intercepted repeated Iranian missile strikes targeting Al Udeid Air Base, raising alarm over energy market stability and regional diplomacy.